Multiple Choice Magic Design Question of the Day 9

9) Assuming the next four expansion sets will each feature one of these direct damage cards in the common shock variant slot, which two are least likely to see print?

Magma Jet, Scattershot, Pyromatics,
Blaze, Gut Shot, Erratic Explosion

 a) Magma Jet and Erratic Explosion
 b) Scattershot and Pyromatics
 c) Blaze and Gut Shot
 d) Magma Jet and Scattershot
 e) Scattershot and Erratic Explosion

Click through to see the answer and my rationale.

Magma Jet is a great card and has only been printed at common in Modern Masters. Even so, it's right on the cusp of being uncommon and only because of power level. It's not likely to be common, but it could be.

Among storm cards, Scattershot is relatively harmless because it can only kill creatures, not players. It was common originally. But storm has always been a 10 on the storm scale (which is frickin' named after it).

Pyromatics has replicate, which will probably be reprinted eventually. It was also common originally. Allowing Pyromatics to be legal in the same Standard environment as Scattershot would make the latter even stronger; that particular combo doesn't alarm me too much, but their surrounding sets will have other replicate cards and other storm cards and that's definitely never happening.

Blaze is inappropriate for common because variable costs are often confusing for new players. That said, Blaze is the simplest X spell ever, and also the least powerful after Heat Ray.

Gut Shot can't be in any set that doesn't feature phyrexian mana, which we'll probably only see once more in Magic, but in that set it's 'completely' fine. I mean, as fine as a 0 mana colored card can be. (While direct damage is primary only in red, it can be colorless when inefficient, which a card that just deals 1 damage always will be.)

Erratic Explosion was common originally, and isn't usually too powerful for common. It is wordy and fairly complex, which red-flag for common under NWO, and it's also very high variance. Sometimes killing your target (who might be your opponent) and sometimes doing nothing at all. Explosive Revelation is a much better design, but as a 2:1 belongs at uncommon.

E is the best answer, and D is the next best answer. Storm's not coming back in an expansion set. Of the choices that exclude Scattershot, Erratic Explosion is the worst fit for common because it's such a mess to read and execute and almost always leaves you sad. Magma Jet is a bit too strong for common, but not moreso than Lightning Bolt. Blaze's {X}{R} cost should keep it out of common, but not more than storm should be left dead.

This question challenges your understanding of complexity concerns at common, the likelyhood of certain mechanics to return, and prioritizing multiple issues. Note that A and B were the worst answers (within their respective storm-or-not brackets) because while Magma Jet enables Erratic Explosion to do some scary things and Pyromatics helps Scattershot shine, you only need to remove one of those two cards from the equation to prevent those combos.